The 1% Move Report

Timely commentary on market performance whenever the S&P 500 changes more than 1% in a day.

 

 

 

 

 

Wealth Management — February 1, 2023

Source: Bloomberg and Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Global Investment Office as of 2/1/2023.

What Happened in the Markets?

  • The S&P 500 gained 1.1% Wednesday to close at 4,119.47. The index is now up 7.3% year-to-date.
  • Ten of the 11 S&P 500 sectors rose on the day. Information Technology (+2.3%) and Consumer Discretionary (+1.9%) outperformed while Financials (+0.02%) and Energy (-1.0%) lagged the index.
  • The Federal Reserve raised the Fed Funds rate by 25 basis points today, setting the new target range to 4.50-4.75%, which was widely expected by financial markets. The FOMC statement reiterated that "ongoing rate increases will be appropriate," but acknowledged that inflation pressures have eased in recent months. Market participants appeared to take Powell's press conference as more dovish than expected given the lack of pushback on the recent easing of financial conditions to start out 2023. 
  • Treasury yields were sharply lower across the curve following today's meeting, with 10-year Treasury rates now at 3.40%, which helped growth stocks to outperform in the session.
  • The ISM Manufacturing Index fell into contractionary territory for the third straight month, while the New Orders component also continued its downward descent to the lowest level since May 2020. 
  • As of the 4 pm equity market close, WTI oil declined 2.5% to just below $77 per barrel. The US Dollar Index declined, while gold gained 1.0% to $1,950 per ounce. 

Looking Ahead

S&P 500 Price vs 50, 100, 200 Daily Moving Averages

Source: Bloomberg and Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Global Investment Office. Data as of February 1, 2023.
  • 4Q22 Earnings: As of market close, 191 S&P 500 companies reported fourth quarter results with 71% of them beating earnings expectations. In aggregate, for the companies that reported, earnings surprised by 2.6% while sales surprised by 1.0%, according to Bloomberg. For the S&P 500, bottom-up, blended 4Q22 earnings growth is anticipated to be -2.9% y/y even as earnings from Energy and Industrials companies are growing 59.6% and 39.3% y/y, respectively, according to Refinitiv. Excluding Energy, fourth quarter earnings are expected to be down 7.1% y/y. During company 4Q22 earnings calls, investors will be monitoring the effect of inflation and the slowing economy on fourth quarter revenues and earnings, as well as on forward guidance. We believe investors have not yet priced in softening corporate earnings. 
 

The Global Investment Committee’s Outlook

Source: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Global Investment Office as of December 8, 2022.

With the Fed responding to 40-year highs in inflation through both rate hikes and balance sheet run-off in 2022, the GIC’s call for continued caution remains intact. Corporate earnings revisions moved lower over the course of 2022, suggesting downside to forward earnings growth. We recommend investors focus on risk management through quality cash flows, defensiveness, and attention to stock-specific valuations. We suggest rebalancing portfolios and tax-loss harvesting during bear market rallies. In fixed income, the challenge is two-fold: generating sufficient income, while also preserving capital, given the potential for higher yields amid ongoing inflation. This requires diversified and active exposure, with our preference for core investment grade fixed income and dividend-paying stocks. Consider revisiting positioning in long-duration/growth equities, where there may not be adequate compensation for the risks of higher real rates, falling operating leverage and the strong US dollar. 

For US equities, the MS & Co. US Equity Strategy team sees the potential for further equity downside in the early part of 2023, given their base-case expectations of $195 for 2023E earnings, well below current consensus levels. Their 2023E S&P 500 base case provides a target of 3,900, based on 2024E earnings of $241. This scenario assumes that nominal top-line growth slows to the low single digits and that margins contract. Their 2023E bear case of 3,500 considers a severe earnings recession, margin pressure and a contraction of EPS growth. Their 2023E bull case of 4,200 corresponds to a mid-single-digit top-line growth rate and limited margin compression. This bull case forecast embeds an estimate of 16.7x MS & Co.'s forward 2024E earnings of $251. 

Market data provided by Bloomberg.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA): A price-weighted average of 30 blue-chip stocks that are generally the leaders in their industry.

NASDAQ Composite Index: A broad-based capitalization-weighted index of stocks in all three NASDAQ tiers: Global Select, Global Market and Capital Market.

S&P 500 Index: The Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 widely held, large-capitalization US stocks.

US Trade-Weighted Dollar Index: A weighted average of the foreign exchange value of the 17US dollar against a subset of the broad index currencies that circulate widely outside the US.

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